By Peter Lynch

12th Oct, 2023 | 6:10pm

Carlos Corberan working wonders as West Brom overperforming this season

Carlos Corberan has certainly not had it easy during his relatively brief stint as manager of West Brom, having arrived at The Hawthorns this time last year.

But the Spaniard almost guided the Baggies into last season’s Championship play-off places, only to fall at the final hurdle.

Going one step further than last time will undoubtedly be the aim this time around, and they certainly have a good chance despite their mixed start to the campaign.

The Albion currently occupy 11th place in the table with 16 points to their name, having won four times, drawn four times and lost three times so far.

While it may not have been the dream start the boss was hoping for, the latest figures from Opta Analyst prove that he is working wonders in the dugout.

As per Opta Analyst (12 October), West Brom are overperforming this season, and should instead be sitting 17th in the table if it was based on expected points.

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The Midlands outfit have an expected points tally of 13.5 at this stage of the campaign, compared to their actual points tally of 16.

As explained by Opta, the expected points model “simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the xG value of every shot taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). 

“Each match is simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.”

The publication cautioned that the model is not an “exact science,” with data not including factors such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots.

Still, it certainly provides an indication of the superb job that Corberan is carrying out, with his players also deserving plenty of credit.

At the end of the day, however, only one table counts at the end of the season, and West Brom will be desperate to be in that all-important top six come the final whistle.

In other West Brom news, a former Premier League referee has spoken out on an incident in the recent clash against Birmingham City.