Supercomputer predicts where West Brom will finish in PL after defeat v Palace
US-based polling company FiveThirtyEight has given West Brom an 83% chance of being relegated this season based on their Soccer Power Index forecast.
Slaven Bilic’s side sit 19th in the table with six points from their opening 11 matches, one point adrift of safety.
However, the FiveThirtyEight Premier League prediction model rates them as the side most likely to be relegated, with bottom side Sheffield United given a 68% chance of going down.
It thinks they will finish in 20th at the end of the season.
Fulham are rated as the third most likely to be relegated, with a 51% chance, with Burnley given a 45% chance.
The model projects West Brom to finish the season with 26 points and a goal difference of -45. The Baggies are also given less than a 1% chance of qualifying for the Champions League or winning the title.
In terms of their most likely finishing position, the projection gives them a 43% chance of ending the season 20th.
According to the expected goals metric, the Baggies have the worst xG differential of -13.3, with the lowest xG total and joint-worst xG against total.
Sunday was a difficult afternoon for Bilic and his team, with Crystal Palace running riot in the second half after Matheus Pereira’s red card stacked the odds against them. The 5-1 defeat will have been crushing for the side’s confidence after a decent run of form in recent weeks.
The red card makes it difficult to fully analyse and the back three formation has served them well in recent weeks. However, all three centre-backs struggled to cope with the direct Crystal Palace attack, with Semi Ajayi caught out on both of Christian Benteke’s goals.
Next up, West Brom face Newcastle United at St James’ Park before a very tough trip to the Etihad Stadium to play Manchester City. Unless Bilic wants the FiveThirtyEight projection to be correct, they will need to start picking up points soon.
In other West Brom news, Baggies star is suddenly the odd one out under Bilic