West Brom expected goals data shows they could turn horror start around
It has been far from an ideal start for West Brom in their Championship campaign with just one win in their opening ten matches, which has also included seven draws.
Baggies fans have been far from impressed with Steve Bruce’s team, who have really struggled to put chances away in the early part of the season. The numerous draws indicate that there is a real lack of cutting edge at the moment.
We all know the feeling around The Hawthorns towards Bruce and his methods, but there could well be a glimmer of hope for the Baggies. This team has some quality players in it and the expected goals metric demonstrates that the Baggies are severely underperforming compared to the chances they are creating.
For those that are unaware, expected goals (XG) measures the quality of chance that is being created and can often be an excellent indication of where a team will finish come May.
Experimental 3-6-1 is one of the most respected websites for statistics such as XG and last season the website’s expected goals table had five teams in the top nine who eventually finished in the actual top seven.
After ten games, it’s good to take a look at the data to analyse which teams are underperforming and right now Bruce’s side, along with Middlesbrough are some of the biggest underperformers in the whole EFL.
According to XG Data’s expected goals table (below), the Baggies are creating enough good quality chances to put them second in the Championship behind Chris Wilder’s side.
The Baggies are 19 places worse off than where the data suggests they should be which indicates that poor finishing and chance conversion is really hurting Bruce’s side.
Whether fans would like to admit it or not, the Baggies are creating chances regularly based on these analytics and there should be hope that the points will start to come.
A change of manager could well kickstart their season into life, but what is certain is that Albion’s forward players need to start being more composed and clinical in attacking situations.
In other West Brom news, Albion are struggling to sell tickets for this weekend’s match.