Opta supercomputer predicts if West Brom will win playoff semi-final v Southampton
West Brom have just a 23 per cent chance of beating Southampton to reach the playoff final, according to Opta Analyst.
The second leg of the Baggies’ playoff semi-final clash with the Saints at St Mary’s has also been given a 24 per cent chance of finishing as a draw in normal time – which would give Carlos Corberan’s men an opportunity to win the game in extra time or via a penalty shootout.
However, Opta believes that leaves Southampton with a 51 per cent chance of winning the game outright and booking their place at Wembley.
Can West Brom beat Southampton and reach the playoff final?
Baggies head coach Corberan will feel his side have a greater chance of getting to Wembley than the numbers suggest.
The goalless draw in the first leg was a fair reflection of the game – which was a tight affair.
Though the Saints dominated the ball at The Hawthorns, recording 63 per cent possession, their xG of 1.0 was practically identical to West Brom’s own tally of 0.99 [FotMob].
Furthermore, the Baggies’ shooting was of a higher standard than their opponents, recording 0.89 xGOT (expected goals on target) to Southampton’s paltry 0.28 – though the fact that both sides’ xGOT was lower than their xG was reflective of a game in which high quality finishing was in short supply.
Nonetheless, if Corberna’s men can keep things similarly tight and cagey for 90 minutes when they travel south to face the Saints, they will have every chance of edging their opponents out by the odd goal and booking a place at Wembley, where they would face one of Leeds United or Norwich City.
In other West Brom news, the Baggies are readying a move to sign Josh Windass from Sheffield Wednesday.
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