West Brom vs Derby County: Carabao Cup clash predicted by supercomputer
West Brom begin their Carabao Cup journey against Derby County on Tuesday.
The Hawthorns outfit hosts John Eustace’s side in the first-round clash on 12 August, looking to embark on a rare cup run.
The Championship will be the main priority for the Baggies, as Ryan Mason attempts to secure a return to the Premier League.
However, the cup gives him a chance to experiment with his squad and potentially allow youth prospects to show their abilities.
West Brom are heavy favourites for Derby clash
West Brom suffered an exit at this stage in the competition last season against League Two side Fleetwood Town.
However, they are expected to progress against their fellow second-tier side on this occasion.
The Opta Analyst supercomputer has predicted that the Albion will win the contest, with a 53.7 per cent chance of securing victory.
A draw is the second most likely outcome, according to the model, with a 23.7 per cent likelihood, while an away win is ranked at just 22.5 per cent.
| Result | Likelihood |
| West Brom win | 53.7% |
| Draw | 23.7% |
| Blackburn win | 22.5% |
Mason will want to take West Brom on long cup run
West Brom’s last major trophy was the FA Cup win in 1968, and while there is not much expectation that they will end that drought anytime soon, you never know.
The likes of Newcastle and Crystal Palace have ended their trophy hoodoos recently, but they are established Premier League sides, so they are in a more privileged position than the Albion.
EFL clubs have proven their ability to go far in the competition, though, with promotion rivals Middlesbrough reaching the semi-finals in the 2023-24 season.
Other EFL cup shocks:
- 2012–13 season: League Two Bradford City reached the final, losing 5-0 to Swansea City
- 2018-19 season: Burton Albion reached the semi-finals, losing 10-0 on aggregate to Manchester City
Mason will be hoping for a decent cup run to generate more money and more positivity around the Black Country club as the season progresses.
Obviously, the focus is on the league campaign, but the cup competitions may prove to be a nice distraction and an opportunity for fringe players to step up.
The last thing that the West Midlands side needs is to go out in the early stages, like last season’s embarrassing exit to lower opposition and Mason and Co should have enough to get past the Rams.
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