(Credit: Imago)

West Brom vs Derby County: Carabao Cup clash predicted by supercomputer

Senior Correspondent AUTHORITY Senior sports journalist with experience at Sports Mole and VAVEL; Masters graduate from Liverpool John Moores University. FOCUS Breaking news, long-form analysis, and club-level insight across the Breaking Media network. THE INSIGHT Declan utilises a network of club and industry contacts to deliver verified, high-speed reporting. He provides the depth behind the headlines — from breaking news to analytical deep-dives — to ensure fans get the full story as it happens.

Published on:

11 Aug 2025, 4:30 am

West Brom begin their Carabao Cup journey against Derby County on Tuesday.

The Hawthorns outfit hosts John Eustace's side in the first-round clash on 12 August, looking to embark on a rare cup run.

The Championship will be the main priority for the Baggies, as Ryan Mason attempts to secure a return to the Premier League.

However, the cup gives him a chance to experiment with his squad and potentially allow youth prospects to show their abilities.

The home crowd will want a positive result. (Credit: Imago)

West Brom are heavy favourites for Derby clash

West Brom suffered an exit at this stage in the competition last season against League Two side Fleetwood Town.

However, they are expected to progress against their fellow second-tier side on this occasion.

The Opta Analyst supercomputer has predicted that the Albion will win the contest, with a 53.7 per cent chance of securing victory.

A draw is the second most likely outcome, according to the model, with a 23.7 per cent likelihood, while an away win is ranked at just 22.5 per cent.

Read More: West Brom fans were blown away by a 'pure class' player during the win over Blackburn

Result	Likelihood
West Brom win	53.7%
Draw	23.7%
Blackburn win	22.5%

Opta's predictions for the contest.

Mason will want to take West Brom on long cup run

West Brom's last major trophy was the FA Cup win in 1968, and while there is not much expectation that they will end that drought anytime soon, you never know.

The likes of Newcastle and Crystal Palace have ended their trophy hoodoos recently, but they are established Premier League sides, so they are in a more privileged position than the Albion.

EFL clubs have proven their ability to go far in the competition, though, with promotion rivals Middlesbrough reaching the semi-finals in the 2023-24 season.

Other EFL cup shocks:

2012–13 season: League Two Bradford City reached the final, losing 5-0 to Swansea City
2018-19 season: Burton Albion reached the semi-finals, losing 10-0 on aggregate to Manchester City

Mason will be hoping for a decent cup run to generate more money and more positivity around the Black Country club as the season progresses.

Obviously, the focus is on the league campaign, but the cup competitions may prove to be a nice distraction and an opportunity for fringe players to step up.

The last thing that the West Midlands side needs is to go out in the early stages, like last season's embarrassing exit to lower opposition and Mason and Co should have enough to get past the Rams.

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carabao cup

Ryan Mason